The AfD state election win in Germany has forced chancellor Friedrich Merz onto the back foot, but he has told his own party and the country in plain terms that he is not resigning and his coalition is not collapsing. The far-right Alternative for Germany has again topped a regional vote, deepening a pattern that began in the eastern states back in 2024 and now reaches straight into Merz’s first year in the chancellery.
Key Takeaways
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly ruled out stepping down after the AfD state election result, calling talk of his resignation “not up for discussion.”
- The AfD, co-led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, has been converting years of protest-vote momentum into outright first-place or near-first-place finishes.
- Germany’s mainstream parties are sticking to their “firewall” (Brandmauer) policy of refusing to govern with the AfD, even where it wins the most seats.
- A shakier German government has direct consequences for India, given the two countries’ roughly €30-billion trade relationship and Germany’s growing appetite for Indian skilled workers.
What actually happened in the state election?
The AfD state election result was not a fluke. It builds on the party’s breakthrough performances in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg back in September 2024, when it became, in Thuringia, the first far-right party to win a German state election outright since the Second World War. Reports from this latest contest describe a similar story: the AfD either topping the poll or running a very close second, at the direct expense of Merz’s own Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD).
What makes it sting more this time is timing. Merz has been chancellor only since May 2025. A big AfD showing barely more than a year into his term reads, fairly or not, as a verdict on his government rather than on the previous one led by Olaf Scholz.
Who is Friedrich Merz, and why does this matter to him personally?
Merz, a long-time CDU heavyweight who spent years outside politics in the corporate world before returning to lead his party, became chancellor after the CDU/CSU bloc won the February 2025 federal election with roughly 28-29 percent of the vote. He needed two rounds of voting in the Bundestag on the same day just to get confirmed — an embarrassing first for post-war Germany — before forming a coalition with the SPD.
That coalition was never built on comfort; it was built on necessity, because nobody in Berlin’s mainstream wants to share power with the AfD. A poor state election result chips away at exactly the kind of internal party confidence Merz needs to keep his coalition partners, and his own backbenchers, in line for the next three years.
What did Merz actually say?
Merz’s message, delivered through his office and repeated by CDU spokespeople, has been blunt: he intends to serve his full term, the federal coalition with the SPD stands, and state-level results — however uncomfortable — will not be read as a referendum on Berlin. He has framed the AfD’s rise as a challenge to be met with policy, particularly on migration and the economy, rather than a reason to reshuffle the chancellery.
Why does the AfD keep winning, especially in the east?
Ask anyone who has actually spent time in a town like Gera or Cottbus rather than just Berlin, and the answer isn’t mysterious. Eastern German states have lower average incomes, an older population, and a lingering sense — thirty-five years after reunification — of being governed by decisions made elsewhere. The AfD has built its base on anti-immigration messaging, scepticism of EU rules, and a general anti-establishment pitch that resonates where mainstream parties feel distant.
Nationally, the AfD’s rise is no longer just an eastern story. It finished second in the February 2025 federal election with just over one-fifth of the national vote, ahead of the SPD, which was the party’s worst showing in over a century. You can read more about the party’s structure and history on its background page on Wikipedia, which lays out how a party founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic, economics-focused outfit has moved sharply rightward since.
How has the AfD’s state-level support actually moved since 2024?
| State election | Approximate AfD vote share | Result for AfD |
| Thuringia (Sept 2024) | ~33% | Won outright — first far-right party to top a German state poll since WWII |
| Saxony (Sept 2024) | ~31% | Close second to the CDU |
| Brandenburg (Sept 2024) | ~29% | Close second to the SPD |
| Latest state election (2026) | Reports point to a similarly strong or record share | Topped or near-topped the poll under Merz’s chancellorship |
The trend line matters more than any single number: each cycle, the AfD is entering these contests as a genuine contender for first place, not a protest party scraping ten percent.
Will the AfD actually enter government anywhere?
This is the part that trips up a lot of outside observers, including plenty in Delhi newsrooms who assume a party topping the poll simply forms the government. In Germany, it doesn’t work that way. Every other major party — the CDU, SPD, Greens, and the Left — has committed to the so-called firewall, refusing coalition talks with the AfD regardless of its seat count. That means state governments keep getting built as awkward multi-party coalitions of everyone except the AfD, which is exactly what critics say fuels the party’s outsider appeal in the first place.
Whether that firewall holds for another decade, or cracks under the sheer weight of AfD vote shares pushing past 30 percent in state after state, is probably the single biggest open question in German politics right now.
Why should readers in India care about a German state election?
This is where the story stops being just a European curiosity. Germany is India’s largest trading partner in the European Union, with two-way trade running close to €30 billion a year, and German firms — Siemens, SAP, Bosch, Volkswagen among them — employ thousands across Indian cities. Berlin has also been actively courting Indian skilled workers, from IT professionals to nurses, to plug its labour shortage, part of a “Focus on India” strategy that both the Scholz and Merz governments have pushed.
A German chancellor distracted by coalition management at home, or forced to spend political capital fighting off a resurgent far right, has less bandwidth for that kind of long-term partnership. Indian companies eyeing German markets, and Indian families weighing a move to Germany on a skilled-worker visa, are not immune to Berlin’s domestic weather, even if it feels like a world away from a district town in Uttar Pradesh or Bihar.
Afd State Election FAQ
Who is the German chancellor right now?
Friedrich Merz of the CDU has been Germany’s chancellor since May 2025, leading a coalition with the SPD after the February 2025 federal election.
What is the AfD?
The AfD, or Alternative for Germany, is a far-right party co-led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, known for hardline anti-immigration and Eurosceptic positions.
Has the AfD ever won a state election before?
Yes. It won Thuringia’s state election in September 2024, the first time a far-right party had topped a German state poll since the Second World War.
Could Merz actually be forced to resign?
Not directly because of a state result. State elections don’t remove a federal chancellor; only a Bundestag no-confidence vote or a coalition collapse could do that, and Merz has said his coalition remains intact.
Why won’t mainstream parties work with the AfD even after it wins?
Germany’s major parties maintain a “firewall” policy, refusing coalition talks with the AfD over its extremist elements, so it stays out of government even when it tops the vote.
Conclusion
Merz is betting that steady governance beats panic, and that voters angry enough to back the AfD in a state election won’t necessarily do the same in a federal one. Whether that bet pays off depends on whether Berlin’s firewall — and Merz’s own coalition — can hold through the next round of tests.